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Date: Sunday, 06 Jul 2014 07:58

More thread.

Author: "Tim Lambert" Tags: "Open Thread"
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Date: Friday, 06 Jun 2014 21:27

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Author: "Tim Lambert" Tags: "Open Thread"
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Date: Tuesday, 06 May 2014 16:02

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Author: "Tim Lambert" Tags: "Open Thread"
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Date: Tuesday, 01 Apr 2014 03:14

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Author: "Tim Lambert" Tags: "Global Warming"
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Date: Saturday, 01 Mar 2014 03:13

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Author: "Tim Lambert" Tags: "Global Warming"
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Date: Monday, 10 Feb 2014 03:13

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Author: "Tim Lambert" Tags: "Global Warming"
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Date: Thursday, 02 Jan 2014 04:10

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Author: "Tim Lambert" Tags: "Global Warming"
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Date: Thursday, 05 Dec 2013 07:56

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Author: "Tim Lambert" Tags: "Open Thread"
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Date: Monday, 04 Nov 2013 11:45

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Author: "Tim Lambert" Tags: "Global Warming"
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Date: Monday, 07 Oct 2013 14:55
Author: "Tim Lambert" Tags: "Global Warming"
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Date: Sunday, 08 Sep 2013 16:08

The thread, there is more.

Author: "Tim Lambert" Tags: "Global Warming"
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Date: Thursday, 01 Aug 2013 02:17

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Author: "Tim Lambert" Tags: "Open Thread"
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Date: Monday, 01 Jul 2013 12:57

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Author: "Tim Lambert" Tags: "Open Thread"
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Date: Saturday, 01 Jun 2013 09:55

More thread for you.

Author: "Tim Lambert" Tags: "Open Thread"
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Date: Thursday, 09 May 2013 09:54

Past time for more thread.

Author: "Tim Lambert" Tags: "Open Thread"
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Date: Monday, 01 Apr 2013 06:58

More thread.

Author: "Tim Lambert" Tags: "Open Thread"
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Date: Thursday, 07 Mar 2013 04:12

Sorry it’s late, I blame the carbon tax!

Author: "Tim Lambert" Tags: "Open Thread"
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Date: Saturday, 02 Feb 2013 13:50

Do you think the alarmists who predicted doom because of the carbon tax will shut up?

Author: "Tim Lambert" Tags: "Open Thread"
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Date: Saturday, 02 Feb 2013 13:48

By popular request, Brad Keyes is only permitted to post in this thread.

Author: "Tim Lambert" Tags: "Open Thread"
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Date: Monday, 14 Jan 2013 09:22

Matt Ridley’s first response to my post about his failed prediction was denial:

I did not write for the Globe and Mail in 1993 let alone about climate!

Then he moved onto stage 3, bargaining:

global av temp (ignoring pinatubo drop) is about 0.2C above 1991 level after 22 yrs – so I was spot on so far!

UAH_LT_1979_thru_Dec_2012_v5.51

As you can see, the graph he cites shows 0.5 degrees of warming since he made his prediction, so it seems that he is applying a 0.3 degree correction for Pinatubo.   Which brings us to Ridley’s next column, published in The Sunday Telegraph on 30 Jan 1994 (one month after his column with the failed prediction):

The satellites, however, tell a very different story about the 1980s (their data do not go further back). Orbiting the planet from north to south as the Earth turns beneath them, they take the temperature of the lower atmosphere using microwave sensors. By the end of 1993 the temperature was trending downwards by 0.04 of a degree per decade.

The satellite’s masters explain away this awkward fact by subtracting two volcanic eruptions (Mount Pinatubo in 1991 and El Chichon in 1982) and four El Ninos (sudden changes in the circulation of the water in the Pacific).  Since they assume that all these would have cooled the atmosphere, they conclude that the 1980s did see a gradual warming of the air by 0.09 degrees: still less than a third of that recorded by the old method.

Even with this sleight of hand (and when I was a scientist I was trained not to correct my data according my preconceptions of the result), the startling truth remains that the best measure yet taken of the atmosphere has found virtually no evidence of global warming.

So according to Matt Ridley in 1994, Matt Ridley in 2013 used a “sleight of hand”, something that he was trained not to do.   If we hold Matt Ridley to the standard he declared at the time of his prediction there has been 0.5 degrees of warming since he predicted that there would be just one degree by 2100.

But if we do want to know what the long term warming trend is, it is not a “sleight of hand” to remove the short term effects of volcanoes and El Nino/La Nina. It is, however, a sleight of hand for Ridley to just correct for Pinatubo and not El Nino/La Nina.  Here is the graph from Foster and Rahmstorf (2011) that shows what temperature records look like if the short term effects are removed:

figure05

Using Ridley’s preferred UAH data set we see that there has been 0.4 degrees of warming since he made his prediction.

Any way you slice it, there has been much more warming that Ridley predicted.  I hope this information will help him reach stage 5, acceptance.

Author: "Tim Lambert" Tags: "Global Warming"
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