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Date: Friday, 18 Apr 2014 13:10
wow, Mexico really shuts down for these two weeks, those Castillian missionaries did a really good job replacing the Aztec God of blood. They probably used communion, this is the blood of Christ, which the locals thought was great , as only the highest Priests would be allowed to drink blood before those nice Christians came by.
On a realted note the Mormons are all over the place down here... Wave of the future, get in on the ground floor, this Mormonism could be huge someday!
Author: "joeycoyle" Tags: "The Foyer"
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Date: Friday, 18 Apr 2014 13:00
We've just published a new T2W article called "Who is the Fattest Kid on our Forex Market Playground?" by Rick Wright.

Quick Summary: Rick Wright explains how the "Relative Strength" between currencies can be used to select which pair to trade

PS. Don't forget to rate the article after you've read it and share your comments on this thread.
Author: "T2W Bot" Tags: "Educational Resources"
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Date: Friday, 18 Apr 2014 12:32
Quite a striking triple bottom/support to emerge on NASDAQ daily chart.
I will be very closely watching when this level breaks, as eventually it must.
Attached a couple of charts.

More bits and pieces @ http://harryhindsightnews.com/ (my blog, just a hobby of mine!)

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Author: "HarryHindsight" Tags: "Technical Analysis"
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Date: Friday, 18 Apr 2014 11:55
There have been a handful of key moments over the last several weeks; I’d like to review the biggest of them on a 60 minute chart, to really put them in context.

What I found quite surprising was the lack of higher time-frame “follow-through” in each instance of news. Draghi or Yellen might say something important and dictate the market direction over the following couple of hours, but the very next day – or soon enough anyway – the market retraces the whole move. It makes me wonder just how significant news is in the grand scheme of things?…

This is hardly a ground breaking call I'm going to make, but if I had to place longer term bets I'd go long ES now, simply on account of the Fed's ongoing commitment to lowering unemployment. I'd go short 6E bearing in mind Draghi's repeated commitment to accommodative action and the fact ECB are on stand-by to deploy the printing presses again.
I guess one of the major risks here is the accommodative policy of the Fed outweighs the ECB and 6E goes the other way.

BTW I have video clips on my blog www.harryhindsightnews.com showing screen recording of how various markets reacted to each news event, and many others besides (just a hobby of mine).

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Author: "HarryHindsight" Tags: "Economic & Fundamental Analysis"
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Date: Friday, 18 Apr 2014 11:28
eurusd eurodolar en tiempo real pronosticos matematicos 1,5,60 minutos gratis....http://www.aseperfi.com/tiemporealintradiacorto.htm
Author: "Aseperfi" Tags: "Forex"
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Date: Friday, 18 Apr 2014 04:45
If so, do you recommend it? I'm looking for a good backtesting tool, preferably on iPad.
Author: "patlov" Tags: "Trading Software"
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Date: Thursday, 17 Apr 2014 23:29
I'd like some thoughts on my system please if you can humour a noobie

Using the 10 min and 5 min charts on the FTSE/DOW (DOW needs more testing and control over leverage)

Look out for a combination of:

Engulfing candle of min 5 points on FTSE and 10 points on DOW
MACD about to cross over
RSI around 60 or 20 region and turning in direction of trade
Stochastic around 70 or 30 and turning in direction of trade

Enter on break of engulfing candle (within 2 candles)
Stop 3 points above engulfing candle (5 on DOW)
Target - length of engulfing candle or if in direction of overall hourly trend or bouncing off a resistance/ support area let it run and move stop to b/e after bar length
Author: "inzimam" Tags: "Trading Systems"
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Date: Thursday, 17 Apr 2014 21:52
I want to check if there is a cheaper alternative to my current broker.

First of all I'm trading CFD's instead of the stocks themselves because of three
main reasons:
1. My broker doesn't require liquidity from the stock market at the price
i'm entering into the market, meaning that if i want to buy 2000 shares
of a certain stock at the price of let's say 25.01 and the ASK has only 100 shares
at that price then i WILL get my 2000 shares at 25.01 and after talking on the
phone with another broker that offers CFD trading (Interactive Brokers)
I was told that they don't work like this and for my example i will get ONLY
the 100 shares that were available at that moment at 25.01
So that is a must have requirement from the broker i need (not needing
the market's liquidity to be there, only the price to be there and i will
get any quantity).

2. Lower Commissions.

3. Higher leverage (1:10 intraday instead of 1:4)


So...
Right now i'm paying 0.6c per 100 shares (no ECN's since it's CFD), meaning that
1000 shares round trip will cost me $12 commission for a single trade.

Anyone know of a lower rate broker that answers my three requirements?

Thanks alot,
Roy.
Author: "rg12" Tags: "Spread Betting & CFDs"
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Date: Thursday, 17 Apr 2014 18:05
And what I would like to know is: Is this skill or beginners luck? That's actually a serious question about my first experiences of trading on a paper account

I'm using Plus500 in demo mode to trade CFDs and I find it pretty simple to understand and use. Here is an explanation of my trades so far, and my reasoning as I understand it

I started out by looking for companies on the US stock market who were big movers on the day, and selected a couple whose share wobbled around around quite a bit (say a dollar or so a day) but also were showing a steady longer term trend

The two I selected were Ctrip (Chinese tour operator) and Pandora (jewelery)

My first attempt went bad as I selected Ctrip which was showing a intraday downward move (as well as a downwards trend over several weeks) and as soon as I placed my short position of 300 shares (about £500 worth before leverage) it moved against me. I watched what was happening and eventually closed out with £151 loss once i figured the market was not gonna move in my favour.

I had a think about what had gone wrong, and the next day after looking at the chart over a period of days rather than minutes I realised I had made the mistake of placing a short position at a price which was at the support level of intraday swings.

Profits/Loss are after commision charges

Opened Long $55.49 08/04 @ 19.54
Closed $54.66 09/04 @ 14.35
Loss = £151.56
OK so one lesson I learnt straight away - look at what is happening 'now' in terms of what has been happening over a longer time frame - and know where the support and resistance levels are likely to be! DOH!

OK so armed with that lesson in mind I tried again.

My next attempt was a short position of 300 shares on Pandora (about £220 worth before leverage). This time looking for an intraday downward move (again in the direction of the longer term trend) and taking note of where support levels appeared to be

Opened Short $26.58 10/04 @ 19:10
Closed $26.25 10/04 @ 19:48
Profit = £58.95

My following trades over the next few days: all are for 300 share positions
Ctrip
Open Short $53.99 10/04 @18:40
Closed $53.45 11/04 @18:28
Profit £96.76


Pandora (I left this one open over the weekend and the market opened considerably against me by approx £180, but fell steadily so I waited all a day and eventually closed with a small profit)
Open Short $25:08 11/04 @19:46
Close $25:00 14/04 $25:00 @20:34
Profit £14.34

Ctrip (did this one while waiting for the above Pandora position to move in my favour)
Open Short $54.71 14/04 @ 17:49
Closed $54.36 14/04 @18.47
Profit £62.77

Pandora - This one was closed on a Profit Call as I had to go out take the missus to the gym
Open Short $25.21 15/04 @ 17:31
Closed $24.92 15/04 @ 17:48
Profit £52.00

Thought I was getting this all figured out now but the next one went bad. Having returned from taking the missus to the gym, I saw my profit call had been made, noticed the downward trend was still advancing and simply jumped in for another bite. The market trended strongly against me.
Lessons from this one -

1. The lesson I should have learnt from the first trade!!! (again) - I should have looked at the longer term picture as well as what is happening 'now'. I had entered short pretty much on the support line (lowest price for several month). When will I learn this lesson!!

2. I Should have got out of the trade much sooner. I was thinking the price would fall again late in the day as traders were oing to be 'profit taking'. Which leads to...

3. Trade what you see not what you think (I read that one here, now I believe it!)

The only thing I did have the sense to do was eventually realise this was a not a 'blip' but a bullish trend likely to extend into the following day and so got out before markets closed, licking my wounds. That at least I was correct about, prices opend up next day and have risen further since!

OK here is the trade:
Pandora
Open Short $24.58 15/04 18:03
Closed $26.26 15/04 20:35
Loss : £301.35

Now around the time of the last few trades I was watching the news and on Monday (14th) I thought to myself hmmmm with all this trouble kicking off in Ukraine and seemingly getting more fractious by the day, I wouldn't be suprised if the price of Natural Gas went up. What with Russia being a major supplier to Europe, and the pipelines running through Ukraine. I thought probably something wouldn't have to 'happen' just the possibility of it happening - or media hysteria - could cause a rise.

So I went in long for about £650 worth of natural gas (35000 contracts which is about £96000 after leverage)

I also came to another thought as well. Correct me if I am wrong, but I have reasoned that a 'black swan' type of event, if one occurs is likely if anything to cause a big jump upwards in commodities like wheat, gas, oil etc and a big jump down in shares (apart from maybe defence companies and that sort of thing)

At least I figure that more times than not, that would be the effect. I have honestly not looked at historic data to see if this is true it just feels logical

Anyway, I made mistake number 1 again Aarghh!!! Look at the current price compared to recent prices before placing a position. So I went long on an upward 'wobble' when the price was near the resistance level

10 mins later I was £240 up. Another few mins I was £480 up. Did I take it? No. Here I am thinking I am right - trouble in Ukraine on the news tihis morning means gas prices will go up

Anyway i went shopping, got back and I am about £1300 down

I watched the prices all day and they did not really rally.

The next day I was about £900 down in the morning and while out at work I noticed prices were rising strongly. For a couple of hours I could have taken a profit between £400 and £800 but I didn't have the Plus500 app on my smartphone! Dispite a good friend who is also learning to trade telling me to do so. Infact we are having a bit of a competition between us to see who can make the most (or more likely lose the least) Gues what - I've installed the App on my phone now!

So by the time i get back to the office I am about £100 down and didn't close

10 mins later I am £1500 down

Next morning (yesterday) it's about this same. This time once again the price rallies in the middle of the day but only gets to about £170 loss on my original position so I didn't close

So over lunch my friend and I dicsuss this and by now I have figured roughly where the support and resistance levels are. He says 'hey Rich, why don't you open another position when the price is low and use it to 'average down' the original position. Hmmm I thought, seems like a good idea.

I also discuss with him that once i get out of this averaged down position I am gonna place some more trades when the gas price is near it's support level and get out when it has a little price rally.

So I set an alert at a low price which is on the support level. Before the price gets that low I see it looks pretty promising so place another long position. My friend does the same (for about 10000 contracts opposed to my 35000)

10 mins later he is out with £60. I refuse to take a profit, though the price rose to about £390 profit before falling back again.

Later the same day he goes long again, grabs a £45 profit and again I refuse to take my possible £212 before the price falls back again.

So now I have to start questioning my own psychology. I have missed out on about £600 of profits because I am waiting to average down my original position.

So last night I open a third position of 35000 contracts as the market has fell lower still. It is showing a definite downward drift.

Now this third positions i started to use to grab small profits from interim upward shifts, even though i am in a bear market (price has gradually drifted dwon by about a percent or so since Monday)

So I am trading against the market becaue I have a conviction that the situation in Ukraine is likely to push natural gas prices up

Therefore I did the foloowing trades. (I've started to use Profit calls now based just below the peaks of previous 'blips') because i realise I have a possible greed issue that I need to deal with

And I start making money from Natural Gas at last :)

And I am only going long, (against the market trand) because of my Ukraine conviciton

Open Long $4.533 16/04 19:02
Close $4.550 17/04 05:38 (profit call)
Profit £339.35

and simultaneously on another contract
Open Long $4.542 16/04 18:46
Close $4.560 17/04 08.40 (profit call)
Profit £360.00

Open Long $4.544 17/04 11:27
Close $4.546 17/04 11:47 (user closed)
Profit £41.62 (was double that when i hit 'close' but price slipped on me slightly)

This is the one I originally intended to average down the first one but it had been steadily moving away from me as the market dropped so closed it on a small profit when I had chance and opened a new one to average down the first one even stronger as the bottom of the dips was now lower by about £500 on a similar sized contract.
Open Long $4.550 16/04 14:29
Close $4.554 17/04 12:45 (user closed)
Profit £70.04

Open Long $4.528 17/04 13:23
Close $4.537 17/04 14:00 (user closed)
Profit £184.68

Then the proce fell steadily and seemed to bottom out a bit so I opened another postion at the current low and then desided to go the gym.

So I set a profit call on this new long position to close at about £450 profit (just below previous blip peak)

I also set my 'averaging down' postion which was now about £500 down on open price to close at about £800 profit, and my original position from monday to close at about £700 loss on the same price - the idea being they would effectively cancel each other out if the market blipped strongly upwards as it had done a couple of times the previous days. I realised that any 'blip' would likely be weaker than the previous day as the market was gradually moving down, so thought this price was a good compromise (it had peaked about £500 higher than that the previous day)

After I had a good workout and got home I found all my positions had closed. And the reults were a bit 'odd' seemingly missing my Profit Calls!

So I had

My original position that I had mistakenly opened near the resistance level (the one I been trying to get out of by averaging down)

Open Long $4.606 14/04 10:28
Close $4.632 17/04 15:30
Profit £498.18

My position I used as a second attempt to average down the first one

Open Long $4.537 17/04 @ 13:04
Close $4.632 17/04 @ 15:30
Profit £1977.99

My third position
Open Long $4.520 17/04 @ 14:08
Close $4.632 17/04 @ 15:30
Prpfit £2,331.95

So I calls my mate and asks if he got on that big hike on gass prices as I just made about £4800 in one go. He said it wasn't quite so much good fun if you were short at the time!! He's £4000 down. Says it just happend BAM just like that - no indication, no warning just a sequence of 1 min candles going down then the next candle starts way way up.

I had a look, and the chart is exactly like that. I asked him what the hell he was doing in a short position, I thought we had discussed this yesterday. He says the gas market has been so predictable today he had been taking long and short positions one after another and creaming off small profits playing the market both ways. His previous position had been long. Also this explained why my trades didn't close out on the profit calls - they never had chance because one price was well below those levels and the next was way above.

I was going long against the trend all day because of my Ukraine prediction but still getting some profits from the predictable blips. Then I started to wonder is it a fluke and nothing to do with Ukraine. I honestly don't know the answer

However I put Sky News on and on the ticker tape

Breaking News: Rueter - US Defense Secretary announces that the US will extend 'non lethal' support to Ukraine

Sorry it's been a long read - but here is the question I really need to understand

I made about £6000 on my £20,000 paper account in a week with a max exposure of about £5000 and usually much much less than that.

Was this luck or was it skill?

Rich
Author: "richy96" Tags: "New to Trading"
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Date: Thursday, 17 Apr 2014 12:02
Hi all

I am a UK-based freelance journalist and I've got great feedback in the past from this forum when I have been researching trading stories for the papers.

I've been commission to write a feature on the rise of of “social trading” sites like eToro, (as well as FxPro's SuperTrader, Currensee and Zulutrade) for one of the UK broadsheet newspapers.

I keen to hear any views on this. If you think they're great and a sure-fire way to make money then I'd love to hear your views

If you think they're a waste of time and a sure-fire way to lose your money then I'd love to hear your views.

If you any views at about the social trading phenomenon then I'd love to hear your views.

Are any of you using eToro, Zulutrade etc... is it working for you? Have any of you tried and failed?

Please get in touch with me whatever your opinion and maybe we can have a quick email exchange or skype/phone chat about your experiences...

I look forward to hearing from you

David

My email is: david.c.robinson@hotmail.com
Author: "Canulearntotrade" Tags: "Trading Systems"
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Date: Thursday, 17 Apr 2014 10:41
Hi guys, I trade shortend options and have recently started at a new firm and need to get my implied vs realised spreadsheets going, I have never done this before because at my last firm there was a kid that did it for us, so was after a bit of help! I have the historical close to close, high and low data for the relevant underlyings in a spreadsheet, and was wondering if anyone knew how to calculate close to close and Garman Klass realised vol in excel. Any help would be really appreciated. Many thanks.
Author: "formguide" Tags: "Educational Resources"
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Date: Thursday, 17 Apr 2014 02:59
I am a professional trader and MQL programmer for about 3 years.
I have created the best Scalper EA 2014 "Overlord" with the following characteristics:

-Exclusive for ECN brokers with low spreads
-Exclusive for the pair EURGBP M5
-Win 87% trades Short/Long
-High Profit Factor
-High Expected Payoff
-Low Drawdown
-Perfect Money Management
-Never destroy the balance
-Has the power to convert $500 in $17,000 in 3 months

-It's free. If interested send me an e-mail or Skype: pc.gamer.cr
-See the backtest below

Attached Files
File Type: zip Overlord.zip (28.2 KB)
Author: "overlord1" Tags: "Trading Systems"
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Date: Thursday, 17 Apr 2014 01:11
Looks promising and simple. But is it too simple, and does it work? Does anyone have any recommendations for similar backtesting apps/platforms that are not as intimidating as some of the ones I've seen so far?

Thanks in advance!
Author: "patlov" Tags: "First Steps"
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Date: Wednesday, 16 Apr 2014 18:17
Hi,

How do many of you deal with the down days and reassure yourselves about your trading strategy and it's effectiveness?

I have been trading an FX strategy over the last two and a half months which took quite some time to develop. It has been going very well except for the last week and a half since non-farms where I can't seem to catch a break and my method is not performing to it's potential.

Do you ever take breaks from trading, waiting for the markets to start trending in more favorable patterns suited to your style? How do you reassure yourself that it is all part of the process and that you haven't completely forgotten how to trade suddenly? All advice and discussions of experiences welcome,

Cheers

SBS
Author: "SlowlyButSurely" Tags: "Psychology, Risk & Money Management"
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Date: Wednesday, 16 Apr 2014 09:59
Hello,

Looking for a Co. that offers 10p/point on indices. Looking to create custom indicators (MT4?).

Suggestions pl.

Thx
Author: "Harami57" Tags: "Spread Betting & CFDs"
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Date: Tuesday, 15 Apr 2014 12:50
Hi,

What about TATA Motors Stock:?:?
Author: "tradebeginner" Tags: "Stocks"
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Date: Tuesday, 15 Apr 2014 08:14
I have just started forex trading and after several days of research decided to open account with OANDA.

Please share your opinion that whether its a good broker or not :?:

Thanks
Author: "usmanzam" Tags: "New to Trading"
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Date: Monday, 14 Apr 2014 20:39
The MKT just hit a very pertinent threshold and I think it's going down. I see the Dow losing about +-2000 in the coming months, perhaps thru the fall. Dollar will gain strength thru the spring/summer, but it's doomed if the pound sees itself through. Hot stock: Calls/sell naked puts on BTX at about 2.65 (no, not necessarily because of "support" from November 2012 lows, but that doesn't hurt.) Now - like NOW (4:39, et US) is as good a time as any to get short E-mini S&P's, 6-point stop at 1831.75 (I'll tell you the profit exit at the profit exit.)

Discoveries abound. What a frickin' ride. Do you know you already have the Holy Grail? DO you? Forget Bollinger bands, stochastics, MA's, trendlines, VIX, MACD, candle "patterns" and whatnot. You're overcomplicating it.

Know this: NOTHING on the MKT is random. It all follows very strict parameters/patterns/laws - and it's beautiful in its simplicity. The MKT is holographic, it is self-aware, and an analog to physical reality.

First smart ass remark gets a free trade. :innocent:
Author: "higherSelfishness" Tags: "Forex"
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Date: Monday, 14 Apr 2014 05:57
You are a a trader happy to take market risk but have you though that there is another huge risk called "Broker fraud risk"

Have a look at this article http://www.indextrader.com.au/SIPC_P...IB_Clients.pdf

The least risk you have ( of loosing money to a broker fraud)
- SIPC covered shares broker who also only offers shares and Options
- SIPC covered shares broker who also only offers shares and Options + Futures

- UK FSA regulated broker with FSIC cover ( but check with FSA fist .. a representative office in UK may not mean 100 % protection

- CFTC regulated futures broker
- Large FSA regulated or CFTC regulated FX ECN broker

Binary Options...! less said the better
Author: "moka2" Tags: "Futures & Options"
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Date: Sunday, 13 Apr 2014 22:24
How many of you are looking forward to buy a good featured Automated Trading System?
Author: "allenrodger" Tags: "Trading Systems"
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