You are very welcome Ben. Thank you for the kind words. Aloha.
This is why you should always cut losses. We never hold losing positions at Big Wave Trading and we always (100% of the time, not 90% not 99%…100% of the time) exit our long-term winning positions with a close below the 200 day moving average.
Thank you Ben.
Excellent analysis as always Josh. Thanks for sharing
Aloha Jackie. I hope you are well.
I list my buys and sells everyday and never hold more than 50 stocks so if you just go back through the daily post going back to April you will know what I am long. However, later today, I can post the current list in the forums under the Telechart PCF file. If you have Telechart I have a list called “stocks I am long” that has every stock I am long tracked in there. As you go along and see the buys and sells you can individually remove and add as is necessary. For now, if you go back to April/May you will know what I am long and what I am not by tracking the daily buy/sells and/or doing a search on our website. The only stocks I remained long coming into the recent uptrend are the stocks you see listed in the ‘top current holdings’ section. I hope this helps. I’ll post the PCF later on the forums.
Have a great rest of your day! Aloha.
where can I find your current portfolio?
Also you don’t have to trade off my recommendations and I hope no one ever blindly follows me into any trade. If you like something or think you like something do some due diligence. If you still like it and you agree with me then you can buy also. I never recommend anyone EVER following ANYONE into ANY trade EVER. I tell you why I am going into the trades. If you agree that they are good, then you are welcome to join me in the trade. If you don’t agree, abstain.
It’s simple. Don’t overthink it.
I am buying KORS ISR and NGL in the AM using market orders. 5% of my account capital goes into NGL and 5% goes into KORS and 2.5% goes into ISR.
Don’t look any further into it. Keep it simple. What I post is what I am doing at the open. No thinking required.
Yes you do never know. People are inclined to find patterns, but there is nothing to say the markets will go down every 8 years.
Thank you for your honesty. However, I am not clear then how to effectively use the site and trade off of the recommendations? Perhaps it is easier and less commission intensive to buy the index and hedge it?
It would be a shame if the Fed propped up a phony economy under the current president and then pulled back and left the next president with a horrible legacy to deal with.
There is a TON of risk in these trend trades in low priced stocks. Before 2008 I could trust these patterns. Now it seems they do nothing but disappoint me. Not all of them obviously and the losses are not enough to abandon these trades. But you better believe this is risky because it is QE that lifts the market now. Not real buyers or accumulation. If we had HUGE volume on the signal in ISR with max-green BOP internal I would be treating it differently. And even more so if we had big volume behind the recent gains. But we don’t so it is what it is.
I do not recommend hedging in a market moving higher with so many leading stocks acting so strongly. We have a lot of overhead resistance but as of now there is no indication we will not be able to fight through it. If we do top, I will go short and sell the longs that give sell signals. However, we have been getting heavily long off the recent lows in NYSE stocks so we are well positioned for a continued move higher; if we reverse, sell the longs and start to add shorts. If we break down, swing for the fences on the short side. However, the odds of this is very low. Why? Right now, we do not have an inverted yield curve and ZERO indication that rates will rise any time soon. Never fight the Fed. Ever. Every time this market tries to breakdown it can’t. This is systematic distribution on the way up. It is going to take a while, it appears, for the smart money to purge their positions to the dumb money. Who knows. We might not see more than a 10% pullback for the next 20 years. You just never know. It isn’t a free market anymore. I am not sure it ever was.
“I am sure that is a HUGE tell that we are in the late stages of a very long manipulated market but I will definitely play because I fully understand my risk in these trades.”
When you say play do you mean there is alot of risk in the trend trades? It is usually a big tell that the market is topping when retail gets involved in stocks in general
Also, being new to the site, I do not plan to purchase existing longs, but take even smaller positions then you post at first in the new longs you post. This being said, do you have a recommendation on hedging for folks like me? Perhaps I could put on collars, but I have no backtesting as to how this would work. Also this seems to be antithetical to letting those winners ride a bit.
I will post what stocks we are following intraday sometimes in my nightly commentary. However, this is an area that we focus on in the chat room during market hours. We have some solid guys that are in the room when I am not there and while time does not permit for me to do this currently. I still give alerts and take some trades that make sense to me when I am around during market hours. But currently I am training for big surf next winter and have a pretty grueling schedule. I follow a lot of sites, user groups, emails, and chat rooms to figure out which stocks are going to be heavily in play during the day. Support levels and breakout levels are given when I am in the chat room. Sadly, I have to go back to daytrading (something I last did in early 2000) to get some serious alpha following the last six years of a market that has destroyed trend followers (by destroyed I mean left them underperforming the indexes). On top of that, I have never seen so much “dumb” money involved in an area of a market like I currently do with all the penny stocks/low priced stocks. It is even more insane than what I saw in 2000. I am sure that is a HUGE tell that we are in the late stages of a very long manipulated market but I will definitely play because I fully understand my risk in these trades. This is definitely not an area that new traders should get involved with. Yet they always do.
Hello. I’ve seen some posts that reference “day trading”? What is this all about? Is there a section devoted to day trading ideas?
You are very welcome!
Thank you very much for this clear response.
Whenever I get too long, I always watch for a potential market reversal. When that occurs, if sentiment is too extremely bullish and the VIX is low I will begin hedging by taking Put positions in the indexes and/or acquiring positions in the 3x Inverse ETFs in my retirement account. I only do this on heavy volume reversals when we have been in a long uptrend for a sustained period of time currently like we are in now. At the early stages of bull markets or uptrends, I will not add hedges heavily at the start of regular pullbacks. However, after 5-6 years of a QE manipulated market where II sentiment is so extreme and the VIX hovers around the 10 level, I feel it is wise to start hedging when the market tries to reverse. I assume I will proven wrong 3 or 4x in this QE market before proven right. However, the long positions will make up for it. If we were trending higher now, bulls and bears were switched or even, and the VIX was somewhere around 30, then I wouldn’t hedge on a pullback. It’s an art. Not a science. There will be false signals in this market but you can be sure we will never miss a 1987 1997 2000-2002 2008 2011 moment. I still don’t know if this rally will hold, if we continue to rally throughout the summer, this fall. If we roll over in the fall, especially on heavier volume and with the old leaders not making new highs, you can be sure I will try again. However, I realize even in an expensive market the odds are low of a serious pullback without one key condition. For the odds to be in favor of an all out 100% short position I will need to see either a flat yield curve or inverted yield curve and then a stock market breakdown.
Thank you for the quick response! I’ve been hunting around the site a little. I’m wondering when you mean hedging what you mean in the context of your portfolio here?
For example I typically have done direct hedges with put options in the past and I know some people will hedge by for example, owning stock(s) in a sector they feel is strong and then shorting the overall sector ETF or buying an inverse sector ETF.
The first number you see is what I would consider the lowest risk cut loss level. This is what I recommend most to use, especially if you are new. However, if you are smarter than I am, have done your due diligence and would not mind giving yourself more room to be proven wrong on the one trade, then you can use the final numerical value. What I usually do in a strong market, is use the final number. In a choppy market like now I will usually kill half of the trade if it fails the first number. Even more, if it does it immediately. I will then use the final number for the remaining position. With hedges I operate slightly different.
I always use market orders with liquid stocks almost always and with stocks breaking out of long bases almost always. I hate to haggle over a few cents if I believe a stock is ready to move. They don’t always but I hate missing out. With RAD, for instance, I did not like how short the base was and how far the 200 day moving average was away. Therefore, I set a limit order around 8.03. It was not filled today. It is now a GTC order and if it does not get filled on a low volume pullback shortly it will be canceled. For now, it is still live. The only time I will set a limit order for sure is if the stock is super thin and has a lot of beta. Sometimes, though, I get burned. Like on ARWR last year. I missed that by .01 cent and it cost me a 300% gain. It was the best setup and miss of the year. Unforgivable.
If you have any further questions, do not hesitate to ask. Thank you for your questions. Aloha.
Hi! What is the difference between the 2 cut loss levels given? Also if we get these buy recommendations after the market close do you recommend setting a limit order at a certain level and trying to get in the following day?