This paper investigates the determinants of migration from 45 Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries over the period 1965–2005. The significant determinants are armed conflict and lack of job opportunities. An additional year of conflict is estimated to raise emigration by 1.7 per 1,000 inhabitants, while an additional 1% reduction in relative growth is found to reduce emigration by 1.5 per 1,000. Demographic and environmental pressures are found to have a less important direct impact, although they may have an indirect impact on migration through conflict and job opportunities. Finally, evidence is found of a ‘migration hump’ in migration from SSA, which is consistent with the finding that much migration from SSA is forced.

Recent research suggests that poor economic integration and isolation from regional and international markets have contributed significantly to poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa. Poor transport infrastructure and border restrictions are major deterrents to trade expansion which would stimulate economic growth and poverty reduction. Using spatial network analysis techniques and gravity trade model estimations, this paper quantifies the economics of upgrading a primary road network that connects the major urban areas in the region. The results indicate that continental network upgrading is worth serious consideration from an economic perspective. Our simulations suggest that overland trade among Sub-Saharan African countries might expand by about $250 billion over 15 years, with major direct and indirect benefits for the rural poor. Financing the programme would require about $20 billion for initial upgrading and $1 billion annually for maintenance.

This paper explores the link between poverty and inequality through an analysis of the poverty impact of changes in income-component inequality and in between- and within-group inequality. This helps understand various possible linkages between poverty, growth and inequality. It might also help design policies to improve both equity and welfare. The tools are applied using the recent 2004 Nigerian national household survey. Interesting insights emerge from both the analytical and empirical analyses. One such insight is that both the sign and the size of the elasticities can be quite sensitive to the choice of measurement assumptions (such as the choice of inequality and poverty-aversion parameters, and that of the poverty line). The elasticities are also very much distribution-sensitive and dependent on the type of inequality-changing processes taking place. This also suggests that the response of poverty to growth can also be expected to be significantly context-specific.

Using regional data for about 180 African provinces, we find that measures of Protestant missionary activity in the past are more correlated with schooling variables today than similar measures of Catholic missionary activity, as previous papers have suggested. However, we find that this effect is mainly driven by differences in Catholic areas (i.e., areas in which Catholic missionaries were protected from competition from Protestant missionaries in the past). This is not surprising because most former Catholic colonies had a number of restrictions to the operation of Protestant missionaries that benefited Catholic missionaries. Therefore, our results are consistent with an economic rationale in which different rules created differences in competitive pressures faced by Catholic and Protestant missionaries.

This paper studies the demographic consequences of the Rwandan genocide and how the excess mortality due to the conflict was distributed in the population. Data collected by the 2000 Demographic and Health Survey indicate that although there were more deaths across the entire population, adult males were the most likely to die. Using the characteristics of the survey respondent as a proxy for the socio-economic status of the victims’ family, the results also show that individuals with an urban or more educated background were more likely to die. The country's loss of human capital is a long-term cost of the genocide that compounds the human tragedies.

This paper studies the demographic consequences of the Rwandan genocide and how the excess mortality due to the conflict was distributed in the population. Data collected by the 2000 Demographic and Health Survey indicate that although there were more deaths across the entire population, adult males were the most likely to die. Using the characteristics of the survey respondent as a proxy for the socio-economic status of the victims’ family, the results also show that individuals with an urban or more educated background were more likely to die. The country's loss of human capital is a long-term cost of the genocide that compounds the human tragedies.

We add to the small set of studies that investigate adaptation to low income among the poor and extend the analysis to education and health. In accordance with previous studies, we find that beliefs about the amounts of income necessary to get by and live well increase with both own household income and the incomes of proximate others. We also find a positive relationship between beliefs about education necessary to get by and live well and own education. However, people believe that more health is necessary to get by when a greater proportion of proximate others are ill or disabled.

Many net oil-importing developing countries, particularly African economies, have faced economic difficulties with high oil price increases. As a case study, this paper assesses the distributional effects of a rise in various petroleum product prices in Mali using a standard computable general equilibrium model. The results suggest that rising diesel prices primarily affect richer households, while the poorest ones tend to suffer more from higher kerosene and gasoline prices. Overall, the impact of fuel prices on household budgets shows a U-shaped relationship with expenditure per capita. Regardless of the oil product considered, high-income households benefit disproportionately from oil price subsidies. This suggests that petroleum price subsidies are ineffective in protecting the income of poor households compared with a targeted subsidy.

This paper is the first to estimate job satisfaction equations in post-Apartheid South Africa. Absolute earnings contribute to greater job satisfaction. Racial group is also an important predictor of job satisfaction, but, when interacted with a proxy for affirmative action legislation, it is found that black job satisfaction is positively correlated with this legislation whereas coloured and to a lesser extent white job satisfaction is diminished.

The effect of nominal tariff cuts on industry wage differentials has been the subject of a number of recent empirical studies. In this paper we investigate the latter relationship with respect to the South African trade reform experience using micro-level labour data for the period from 1995 to 2004. Our study extends on the existing literature in two respects: first, we are the first controlling for the potential effect of labour market institutions, such as collective bargaining power, in assessing the relationship between tariffs and industry wages. Second, we account for general equilibrium effects by controlling for the impact of changes in effective tariff rates. On the one hand, we find that only wages in industries with levels of unionisation beyond a certain threshold were adversely affected by tariff cuts. This negative effect is exacerbated by the extent of sectoral union power. The reported large magnitudes of the tariff impact on wages is in line with the considerably high mark-ups documented for South Africa. On the other hand we find some evidence suggesting that wages in industries with union power below the threshold were positively affected by the tariff cuts. This evidence suggests the omitted variable bias resulting from not controlling for industry heterogeneities in bargaining power when examining the wage–trade relationship.

Has Africa finally reached the path to sustained growth? We find that much of the improvement in economic performance in Africa after 1995 is attributable to a substantial reduction in the frequency and severity of growth declines in all economies and an increase in growth accelerations in mineral-rich economies. We find, however, that growth accelerations have not been generally accompanied by improvements in variables often correlated with long run growth, such as investment. We also fail to find evidence that substantial policy and governance improvements were associated with the post-1995 accelerations. We conclude that Africa's growth recovery remains fragile.

There is a large literature on the impact of exchange rate and monetary policy regimes on inflation volatility in emerging markets. Other determinants of inflation volatility are less well understood. Using monthly time-series data on the prices of ninety-six individual products in thirty-seven Nigerian states, I explore the non-monetary state-specific characteristics that drive local inflation volatility. Among the significant determinants of volatility are average inflation, transport and communication infrastructure, consumer access to credit markets and urbanisation. However, there is substantial heterogeneity across products in the relative importance of these factors. We discuss the implications of our results for development policy.

The Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CAEMC) has been a monetary union for several decades now. According to the hypothesis of endogenous optimal currency areas (OCAs), the degree of business cycle synchronisation across its member states should be significantly higher today than forty years ago. This paper examines cycle synchronisation along three different statistical dimensions and shows that (i) synchronisation has remained low throughout the period 1960–2007, but (ii) it has marginally increased over time. These findings have important implications for the design of the economic integration process in Africa. A chronology of business cycles in CAEMC countries is provided.

Have recent reforms improved market functioning in African economies? This article examines how the raw milk market in western and central Kenya has developed after the dairy sector liberalisation in 1992 by using panel data of 862 rural households. From the late 1990s to 2004, the proportion of rural households who sold milk increased from 37 to 51%. During the same period, the proportion of households who sold milk to traders more than doubled, while it declined from 29 to 12% for those who sold milk to dairy cooperatives. On the basis of the price differentials between the farm gate and retail prices, we find that the functioning of the market improved between the late 1990s and 2004; in turn, the development of the milk market has increased the adoption of improved cows, resulting in higher milk sales.

Using data from labour force surveys conducted simultaneously in the capital cities of seven West African Economic and Monetary Union countries, we estimate a model of residential location choice in which expected earnings play a role. The model is first estimated in a reduced form. Estimates are then used to correct for the endogeneity of locational choice in the earnings equations estimated for each country. We find that migration behaviour has a significant effect in shaping earnings differentials between education levels and between the seven capital cities. Corrected predicted earnings in each country are then used as an independent variable in a structural multinomial logit of residential choice. Results show that individuals tend to reside in countries in which their expected earnings are higher than elsewhere.

This paper attempts to identify the key challenges of financing countries in post-conflict transition. Such countries constitute a critical development challenge given their enormous socio-economic needs and the difficulties associated with providing effective development assistance. Conflict destroys a country's economic, governance and administrative institutions; weakens public financial management systems and increases transaction costs, which makes it difficult for principals to monitor their agents. Rebuilding social and economic infrastructure is as crucial as the rehabilitation and reconstruction of the destroyed physical infrastructure—roads, bridges, restoration of water supply and sanitation and energy and power. A framework is elaborated here for assessing (i) Post-conflict situations in African countries; (ii) possible mechanism of financing post-conflict reconstruction and development in Africa; and, (iii) lessons from the past challenges of financing countries in post-conflict transition in Africa. The paper concludes that post-conflict financing in Africa needs to be done in the appropriate context and framework to enhance impact and effectiveness. They should be accompanied by the appropriate policy framework and guidance, and should be conceived within the context of the country's long-term development objectives.

What are the root causes of Africa's current state of under-development? Is it the long history of slave trade, the legacy of extractive colonial institutions, or the fallout of malaria? We investigate the relative contributions of these factors using Atlantic distance, Indian Ocean distance, Saharan distance, Red Sea distance, log settler mortality and malaria ecology as instruments. The results show that malaria matters the most and all other factors are statistically insignificant. Malaria also negatively affects savings. The results are robust even when the malaria ecology instrument is replaced by frost, humidity and rainfall and when the latter are used as additional control variables. We find that frost alone is enough to knock off the effects of slave trade and institutions on long-term development in Africa.

This paper considers why economic policies may need to be distinctive if a country is post-conflict relative to others which are equally poor but peaceful. Objectives should probably be distinctive because the risk of conflict is typically much higher. I argue that appropriate responses are job creation for young men, and deep cuts in military spending. Political opportunities are likely to be distinctive because reform may be easier than at other times. Economic opportunities are likely to be distinctive because conflict distorts the structure of the economy. Standard approaches to economic development are therefore often inapplicable, yet the capacity of government to devise tailored solutions is very limited.

This study used the Ricardian approach that captures farmer adaptations to varying environmental factors to analyze the impact of climate change on crop farming in Ethiopia. By collecting data from farm households in different agro-ecological zones of the county, net crop revenue per hectare was regressed on climate, household and soil variables. The results show that these variables have a significant impact on the net crop revenue per hectare of farmers under Ethiopian conditions. The seasonal marginal impact analysis indicates that marginally increasing temperature during summer and winter would significantly reduce crop net revenue per hectare whereas marginally increasing precipitation during spring would significantly increase net crop revenue per hectare. Moreover, the net crop revenue impact of predicted climate scenarios from three models (CGM2, HaDCM3 and PCM) for the years 2050 and 2100 indicated that there would be a reduction in crop net revenue per hectare by the years 2050 and 2100. Moreover, the reduction in net revenue per hectare by the year 2100 would be more than the reduction by the year 2050 indicating the damage that climate change would pose increases with time unless this negative impact is abated through adaptation. Additionally, results indicate that the net revenue impact of climate change is not uniformly distributed across the different agro-ecological zones of Ethiopia.

The period 1990–2000 saw 19 major armed conflicts in Africa. Peace has been elusive, and the term ‘post-conflict’ often a sad misnomer. War is expensive and hence has powerful economic consequences. Civil war, which is now, by far, the most common form of conflict in Africa, is particularly damaging, reduces incomes, increases capital flight and diverts activity into subsistence livelihood. Post-conflict situations are characterised by unusually wide range of outcomes. While on average economies rebound from war, in some the economies decline and in others they revert to conflict after some time (Collier et al., 2003). Policy choices concerning the economic recovery of these hopeful but fragile situations have received far less attention than issues of humanitarian needs. The current efforts of many African countries coming out of conflicts to develop Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSPs) reflect increased emphasis on mainstreaming poverty reduction through better inter-agency and inter-sectoral co-ordination, and through participatory consultation, consensus building and planning. In addition, it has been widely agreed upon that HIV/AIDS should be prominent in the Poverty Reduction Strategies of poor African countries in light of the challenges that the pandemic poses to poverty reduction efforts. PRSP has become the primary tool in nearly all African countries for articulation of the strategies for growth and poverty reduction. The paper provides the main challenges that the PRSP formulation faces in a post-conflict environment. The key questions discussed in the paper include: Can PRSP work in a post-conflict situation? Are PRSP really relevant at all in such countries? Does a PRSP formulated in a conflict-free country guarantee poverty reduction and overall welfare of the society? Since PRSPs in Africa came at a time when the continent had no choice, are they really home grown as often alleged? How have international donors engaged in the process and what is the way forward? The paper also reviews the historical perspective of conflicts in Africa and points out experiences in some of the conflict-affected African countries as they develop and implement their PRSPs. It concludes that not all African countries in post-conflict recovery have successfully developed their PRSPs. Some are still in the process of doing so and others who have endeavoured to draft one, have not correctly spelled out the donor-specific key objectives of the government's commitment to poverty reduction. Finally, PRSPs often emphasise consumption-related expenditures in mainly social sectors like education and health while ignoring the sectors where the poor are dominant (for example, agriculture). Quite often, the emphasis on such sectors do not lead to significant poverty reduction whether in a post-conflict or conflict-free country.